The Currency Carry Trade: Is It Still Viable? February 2017
The currency carry trade involves owning high interest rate currencies and funding the positions from lower yielding ones. Earlier research had shown that this trade was generally profitable for the twenty years to 2007. In this article, we examine the subsequent ten years to 2016 to see how well the carry trade worked in that period.
When Active Share is Not What it Seems November 2015
Active Share is increasingly used in the investment industry to measure the degree to which a manager makes active decisions. But Active Share is always measured relative to an index. The concentration of that index makes a big difference, so much so that there is no universal answer to whether a specific level of Active Share is high or low. We believe investors need to be aware that when a benchmark is especially concentrated, it is very hard to push Active Share to levels that are generally perceived as high. This research provides a practical framework for investors to evaluate a manager’s Active Share.
As Research Director of the Brandes Institute advisory Board, Barry Gillman co-authored this research, published by the Brandes Institute and SEB Investment Management.
Brandes Retirement Simulator
Brandes Investment Partners has developed the Brandes Retirement Simulator, an interactive program that allows you to model your future income, expenses and investment strategy to simulate possible financial outcomes over your lifetime, including both investment and longevity insurance assumptions. Using Monte Carlo modeling, the Simulator will show you a range of good, median and bad outcomes based on your customized inputs and assumptions. It’s free and is available on their website.
The investors’ dilemma for institutions is the contrast between their long-term horizon obligations and the regulatory, market and behavioral pressures to think short-term. While the notion of long-term investing may sound compelling, in practice implementation has proved tough. However, some of the world’s largest institutional investors have now begun to coordinate to promote the concept and practice of long-term investing. In this article, we examine recent developments in these initiatives.
Barry Gillman authored this article as Research Director of the Brandes Institute Advisory Board.
Boomers Behaving Badly: A Better Solution to the Money-Death Problem January, 2012
The biggest single financial worry for American workers may be “money death,” the fear that they will run out of money during retirement. Americans within 10 years of retirement number 60 million and are forecast to grow to more than 75 million within the next decade. Investment strategies for retirement rooted in conventional wisdom or extrapolated from successful past approaches may no longer be ideal for healthy and wealthy Boomers. Supported by a proprietary modeling tool—the Brandes Retirement Simulator—we are able to estimate wealth outcomes based on personalized financial and lifestyle inputs. The results suggest that the baby-boomer generation should consider contrarian strategies, including equities and fixed income assets with higher-return potential to address the “money death” problem.